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Will Spring Wildflowers in Death Valley Be Stronger Than 2016 in 2027?

Currently weather models are predicting a “super El Nino” in 2026-2027, stronger than the strong one in 2015-2016. The best analysis of what that means that I’ve seen is by Daniel Swain:

Special update: Rising odds of a strong-to-historic El Niño event in 2026, with growing likelihood of significant regional-to-global scale impacts – Weather West
“multi-model ensemble predictions have become even more aggressive and are now explicitly predicting an El Niño of very strong, and quite possibly record-breaking, magnitude by autumn or early winter. In fact, the just-released multi-model “superensemble” predictions for June are nothing short of remarkable, with the median forecast from every single international model ensemble depicting at least a “strong” event, and the majority indicating a top-tier, very strong-to-historic event.”

None of this is guaranteed… the El Nino winter of 2015-2016 actually delivered below average rainfall amounts, but the timing of the rain was perfect for delivering a super bloom in spring 2016. 2023-2024 was another El Nino winter, and we had excellent conditions once enough rain showers watered the germinated plants.

Swain mentions that summer monsoon moisture can bring large events from August through September or October. He goes on to say that while weak to normal El Nino years can have their effects on weather overshadowed by other trends, the strong ones have a greater likelihood of delivering significant rain:
“Big El Niño events significantly increase the odds not only of wet winters in California and the Southwest, but also specifically of extreme precipitation events and most likely flood risk as well. Additionally, the increased precipitation signal expands from being primarily in southern California (during weaker events) to encompassing essentially the entire state (during strong ones), as well as a broader swath of the Southwest.”
The huge storm that damaged Scotty’s Castle came in October 2015 during that strong El Nino, and in multiple recent years the flooding of the Badwater Salt Flats came after heavy August rains raised the water table, so even moderate rains in the fall can maintain the pool. The months of flooding during the 2023-24 El Nino event started in August 2023.

The backcountry roads in Death Valley could be impacted by larger rain events. We’ll remain flexible with our itineraries. We use our decades of experience with Death Valley in spring, our knowledge of Death Valley weather and ecosystems, and our life in the desert rain shadow of the Sierra Nevada along with Death Valley to watch storm paths and rain frequency to anticipate where the strongest blooming will be. We assess density of germinated plants during our winter light workshop in December. Living nearby, we’ll often go on a scouting trip in January or February to check on plant health and growth progress in various areas of the massive park. Exploring our nearby public lands such as Death Valley is what we do for fun, and we’re thrilled that we can take photographers along and share what we’ve found!

Having the ability to easily visit the park a lot gives us some great insight. In November 2023 we found Desert gold sunflowers germinated and even blooming in Panamint Valley, enabling and foreshadowing the extensive bloom there in March and April 2024 (see the photo above for the outcome).

Similarly, a visit in November 2013 showed germination and early blooming, enabling anticipation of the strong bloom in spring 2014. In each of these cases however, the blooming was contained to a remote valley, and many if not most of the park visitors had no idea that there were ample pockets of intense blooming if you visited the right portion of a remote valley in the park.

In spring 2017 our scouting revealed prolific desert gold wildflowers near an abandoned talk mine. There were several healthy pockets of strong blooming in this area, but I don’t recall seeing photos from other photographers, other than the ones we showed the area to.

Wildflowers aren’t the only reason to visit Death Valley in the spring. There are always exotic landscape to pursue in favorable light, and by early March the Milky Way is available to shoot before dawn on the nights close to the new moon.

There’s never a bad time to visit Death Valley, but some seasons and moon phases are better than others. Lori and I lead our own workshops, and our time is valuable, so you can be sure that we’re only wanting to be out when the conditions and odds are stacked in our favor in multiple ways. Since some unpaved roads may be in rough shape to reach some backcountry locations after heavy rains this winter and spring, we have fewer Death Valley workshops scheduled in the 2026-7 season. Both released itineraries already have people enrolled, so grab a space while there’s still some left. We limit enrollment to 8 to minimize crowding, footprints, and to ensure that you can get more attention from us if you like. Some people come for our experience and guiding, some for instruction and advice. Having small groups enables us to give each participant the level of attention that they want.

If you might want to join us in Death Valley sometime, click here to see an overview of our upcoming offerings. You can click though to the individual workshop descriptions from there, with sample itineraries and photos relevant to the season and possible destinations. Some of our competitors advertise Death Valley workshops showing locations so remote that we’re pretty sure they’ve never brought clients to, and probably never will. Or photos inappropriate for the workshop’s season are used. Our portfolios are deep enough in every season that we don’t need to show a handful of pretty but irrelevant photos to lure anyone into a workshop.

Jeff wrote the book on photographing Death Valley (and Southern California), and he has over 2100 Death Valley images on Flickr. our workshops are illustrated with photos from places we might actually go with you, taken by the owners/guides that you’ll be with. It just seems like the only ethical way to present what our clients can expect.